回眸2019之一：2019年冻品行业十大事件Review 2019 Ⅰ

2019冻品行业报告之一

2019冻品行业十大事件

OIG Research Review 2019: Topic One: Top 10 events of imported meat 

and seafood in 2019

前言：春暖花开，未来已来。2019已成记忆，在过去的一年间，中国冻品行业风云变换。瘟疫的肆虐、行情的跌宕、政府的调控、巨头的布局，时刻都在牵动着业内人士紧绷的神经。

Foreword: 2019 has become a memory. In the past year, 

the situation of frozen meat and seafood in China has changed a lot

优合集团作为中国最大的进口冻肉和水产品供应链平台，始终与业界朋友并肩奋斗、风雨同舟。2020年，优合将向业界朋友分享更多资讯、输出更多价值，敬请期待。

As the largest supply chain platform for imported frozen meat and seafood in China, OIG(OPTIMIZE INTEGRATION GROUP) has always worked hard with our partners in the industry. In 2020, OIG are aiming to share more information and output more value to our partners.

凡是过往，皆为序章。近期，优合将推出回眸2019系列文章，梳理过往、思考未来。

01非洲猪瘟疫情

01.ASF

非洲猪瘟在中国暴发并大面积传播已进入第二年。2019年中国猪瘟疫情的局面可从两个方面来概括。

This is the second year that African swine fever broke out and spread widely in China. The situation of swine fever in China in 2019 could be summarized from two aspects.

一方面，防控成效显著。从2018年8月3日，我国确诊发生第一例非洲猪瘟疫情以来，全国共报告发生了162起非洲猪瘟疫情，共扑杀近120万头染疫生猪。截止到2020年1月8日，全国除云南省还有1起疫情尚未解除封锁外，其余的30个省区市的疫情都已经全部解除封锁。2019年，全国共报告发生了63起非洲猪瘟疫情，共扑杀生猪39万头；除4月份之外，其他11个月的疫情发生数都保持在个位数。

另一方面，形势依然严峻复杂。我国非洲猪瘟病毒已经形成了较大的污染面，预计疫情将来还会在我国呈点状发生，防控形势依然严峻复杂。尤其要注意，冬春季节非洲猪瘟发病风险更高、消毒措施效果不佳。生猪存栏的快速增加、生猪和猪肉产品调运增多，也会大大增加疫情发生和传播的风险。

总的来说，虽然2019的疫情防控效果相较于2018年有了明显的提升，但非洲猪瘟对中国养猪业造成的影响远未消散。

1. The prevention and control actions have achieved remarkable results. By January 8, 2020, except for one case in Yunnan Province, the rest 30 provinces have lifted the movement restrictions of hog. The number of outbreaks in each month of 2019 remained in single digits except April.

2. The situation is still severe and complex. The risk of ASF was higher in winter and spring. If the disinfection measures have not been strictly taken by farmers, With the cross provincial transportation of hogs and the pressure of hog stocks, the epidemic is likely to return and large-scale outbreak again.

In general, although the epidemic prevention and control in 2019 has been improved significantly compared with 2018, the impact of African swine fever on pork industry in China is far from dissipated.

02中国加快批准多国多厂准入

2. A large number of foreign plants have been approved during 2019.

非洲猪瘟造成了中国国内猪肉产量的急剧减少，作为猪肉替代品的牛羊禽肉也同样受到波及，面临更大的供需逆差。为扩大肉类进口、增加供给、缓解供需矛盾，2019年海关总署全面加快进口肉类的国家准入和工厂注册进程。全年共新增国家准入16个，新注册工厂642家，在2018年的基础上分别快速增长50%、79.85%。

ASF has caused a precipice reduction in pork production of China. As substitutes for pork, beef, mutton and poultry meat have also been affected obviously, facing a greater supply-demand deficit. In order to guarantee the market supply of meat, the GACC comprehensively accelerated the process of approval of foreign plants entering the Chinese market in 2019.

 As a result, a historically high number of 642 plants have been approved in 2019, up 79.85% than 2018.

03中国进口肉类数量猛增

3. The total amount of imported meat increased sharply

更大的供需逆差需要更大的进口量来填补。2019年，中国肉类进口商们各显神通，在扩展自身业务的同时，为国内市场带来了史无前例的肉类供给。

A bigger supply-demand deficit needs to be filled by more imports. In 2019, Chinese meat importers have tried their best to expand their business and created the largest annual meat import volume so far.

中国市场供需失衡、国外货源数量快速增长，使得2019年肉类进口量、进口金额暴增，前8个月即已追平2018全年进口量。2019全年进口肉类及杂碎总量603.2万吨，同比暴涨48.2%。

The imbalance between supply and demand in China's market and the rapid growth in the number of foreign sources of goods have resulted in a sharp increase in the volume and amount of meat imports in 2019. It is unprecedent that the import volume in the first 8 months of 2019 overtake that of the whole year of 2018. According to China Customs statistics, the total amount of imported meat and offal in 2019 is around 6.032 million tons, up 48.2% than in 2018.

04进口冻品大涨大跌

4. Huge fluctuation on the price of imported frozen meat 

受中国“缺肉”预期的刺激，冻肉期货采购量一路上扬。特别是5月中食展（SIAL）、10月科隆展（ANUGA）、11月进博会（CIIE）及餐饮食材展（FHC）等各大展览，对价格飙升起到了推波助澜的作用。11中旬，猪牛鸡各类价格被拉升到历史高位。此时，一场危机从天而降。11月中下旬开始，随着国内猪肉价格开始下行，进口冻肉价格呈断崖式大幅度下跌20%-40%，全行业流动性很差、资金非常紧张。从某种意义上来说，2019年中国进口冻品行业又被迫经历了一次洗牌。

Insiders generally believed that the domestic meat supply in China will be more tense, so they had very high expectations for the future price of frozen meat. Some traders were even willing to take high risk to buy frozen meat futures at an unbelievable price. The situation of short supply at various exhibitions promoted the continuous rise of meat prices and it made traders become more enthusiastic about frozen meat. In the middle of November 2019, the price of many meat products had been raised to a historical high level. Unpredictably, a crisis was coming. From the middle to the last ten days of November, with the continuous decline of domestic pork price, the price of imported frozen meat began to fall sharply, with a range of 20% - 40%. A large number of losses and defaults have resulted in poor liquidity in the industry and It even made some small and medium-sized enterprises close to bankruptcy. In a sense, Chinese imported frozen meat industry was forced to undergo a reshuffle in 2019.

05进口冻品：风险与风控

5. Imported frozen meat and seafood: 

risk and risk control

随着进口肉类来源的增多、数量的快速增长，进口肉类面临的质量安全不合格数量随之增长。2019年中国海关阻止不合格肉类入境批次同比增长288%。

此外，2019年白虾曝出“大新闻”——疫病问题，厄瓜多尔、印度等国工厂纷纷被中国海关检出白斑病、黄头病等疫病，导致多家工厂被暂停输华，一时贸易大受影响。12月，痛定思痛之后的厄瓜多尔官方部门开始对每批输华白虾检测虾病，合格方出具卫生证书、准许发货。自此“白虾疫病事件”告一段落，进入相对稳定的时期。厄瓜多尔这一解决模式，也为其他出口国提供了借鉴。但今后输华白虾疫病问题是否还会出现反复，要取决于出口国的管控水平。

With the soaring of import volume, the number of unqualified shipments also increased a lot in 2019, especially in the field of imported frozen meat, by 288% year on year.

In addition, there are also major events in the field of imported seafood. In September, white shrimps from Ecuador and India were inspected by Chinese customs for white spot disease and yellow head disease. Many plants had been suspended from exporting to China during that period. After 3 months, authorities in Ecuador began to test each batch of white shrimp exported to China and awarded certificates of conformity to those qualified batches. Since then, the "white shrimp epidemic event" has finally come to subside.

06中美贸易战

6. Trade war 

中美贸易战持续成为2018年以来全球最为关注的问题，其影响范围涉及贸易、投资、经济，甚至政治等方方面面。美国作为全球肉类的主要生产国和出口国，美国肉类输华自然深受中美贸易战影响。在中美双边肉类贸易方面，中国几乎是纯进口国。因此，美国搬起石头砸自己的脚，其输华猪肉、牛肉被中国加征关税，直接导致美国输华肉类贸易断崖式锐减。经历了2018年的低谷，2019年中美关系得到了一定程度的缓和。2019年12月，中美签署了第一阶段贸易协定，签署当月，美国对华肉类出口量便暴增，其中以猪肉贸易增长量最为明显。美国2019全年对华猪肉出口量更是达到了2018年数据的3倍。据统计，2019年美国输华肉类47.4万吨，同比2017年的17.68万吨和2018年的16.2万吨分别暴增192%和168%。2019年年底，中国又批准了美国数百家肉类工厂对华出口肉类产品，预计2020年美国对华出口肉类数据会进一步膨胀。

The trade war between China and US has been a concerned international issue since 2018. It involves many industries, including international meat trade. As a major producer and exporter of meat in the world, the United States is deeply affected by the trade war. The Chinese government imposed additional tariffs on its pork and beef products exported to China, which directly led to a precipitous decline in the total amount of meat exported to China by the United States. But now the trough has become the past. By the end of 2019, the relationship between China and the United States have been greatly eased. In December, China and the United States signed the first phase of the trade agreement. In the month of the signing, the volume of meat exported to China by the United States increased sharply, especially for pork. According to USDA statistics, 474, 000 tons of meat exported from the United States to China in 2019, up 192% and 168% respectively from 176, 800 tons in 2017 and 162, 000 tons in 2018. In addition, at the end of 2019, China approved hundreds of U.S. plants to export meat products to China. It could be predicted that the U.S. meat export data to China will further expand in 2020.

07正关率大幅提升

7. Substantial improvement of 

official-unofficial ratio 

长期以来，不少肉类通过灰色渠道入境，带来食品卫生风险和生物安全风险，严重冲击市场秩序。近年来，国家有关部门持续加大打私力度，从边境、运输、分销、用户等各个环节同时发力，取得明显成效。2019年，厄瓜多尔白虾对越南出口大幅下降；2019年前11个月，印度到越南的水牛肉出口量也大幅削减，同比下降了18.16%。

Chinese meat and seafood import industry has been plagued by smuggling frozen meat and seafood for a long time. In recent years, the Chinese government has taken lots of actions to combat smuggling and achieved remarkable results, which could be reflected by this example: in 2019, white shrimp exported from Ecuador to Vietnam decreased significantly; in the first 11 months of 2019, the export of beef from India to Vietnam also decreased a lot, by 18.16% compared to 2018.

08食品安全监管进一步加强

8. Improvement of food safety regulation

中办国办印发《地方党政领导干部食品安全责任制规定》，2019年2月5日起施行。《规定》明确，地方各级党委和政府对本地区食品安全工作负总责，主要负责人是本地区食品安全工作第一负责责任人；提出建立地方党政领导干部食品安全工作责任制，将食品安全工作纳入地方党政领导干部政绩考核内容。

新修订版《食品安全法实施条例》于12月1日起正式施行。新条例坚持以人民为中心，坚持“四个最严”要求，围绕夯实主体责任、强化全过程监管、提高违法成本等重点内容，在食品安全法的基础上，补短板、强弱项，以良法善治，为人民群众“舌尖上的安全”保驾护航。

英国《经济学人》智库发布了《2019年全球食品安全指数报告》。中国在113个国家和地区中排名第35位，较去年上升11位。

In order to strengthen domestic food safety supervision, the Chinese government has issued a series of documents, includes “the provisions of food safety responsibility system” and “the newly revised food safety law”.

According to “Global Food Security Index (GFSI)” released by the “The Economist”, China ranks 35th out of 113 countries and regions, up 11 places from last year, according to the 2019 global food safety index report released by the economist.

09中国肉类进口深刻影响全球市场

9. Great influence of China on global meat trade

对于外商来说，中国市场需求庞大而且品类互补性强，近年来准入之门加速开启，此外冻猪肉等进口关税大幅调低4个百分点，降幅达30%。中国市场犹如强力磁石，改变了很多国家的肉类养殖、屠宰、加工、流通格局，甚至该国居民的消费习惯。在全球最大牛肉出口国巴西、主产国乌拉圭，中国买家竞相抢购造成肉价飞涨，使得该国不得不从别国进口牛肉以平衡市场。

In recent years, in order to expand the import scale, the Chinese government has significantly reduced the import tariffs of meat. For example, the tariff of frozen pork has been reduced by 4 percentage points, with a drop of 30%. Chinese meat market is like a strong magnet. Its attraction has even changed the pattern of meat breeding, slaughtering, processing and circulation in many countries. In Brazil, the world's largest beef exporter, and Uruguay, the main beef producer, Chinese traders rushed to purchase mass quantities of beef, resulting in soaring meat prices, so that these two countries have to import beef from other countries to balance their domestic market.

10国际巨头加快布局中国

10. International giants speed up their distribution in China

9月20日，德国通内斯集团和四川德康集团合作建设的生猪屠宰和肉食品加工厂正式签约落户四川眉山，可年屠宰加工生猪600万头，其中一期项目300万头，投资60亿元。这是通内斯集团在欧洲之外投建的第一个工厂。而就在9天前（9月11日），丹麦皇冠集团在中国的第一个生产基地--丹尼斯冠食品(中国)有限公司浙江平湖工厂正式投产。

国外巨头在华设立贸易公司、办事处非常普遍；但直接投资设厂，还为数不多。通内斯、皇冠两大猪肉巨头在华投资，无疑是对中国庞大的肉类消费市场的看好和加持。相信将来还会有更多的国外肉企走进来，在中国直接打造肉类供应链，“零距离”贴近中国市场。

On September 20, 2019, Tönnies Group and Dekon Group officially signed a contract to jointly built a hog slaughtering and processing plant in Meishan, Sichuan Province. This will be the first plant that Tönnies Group invests and builds outside Europe.

Coincidentally, just 9 days ago (September 11), the first production base of Danish Crown was officially put into production in Pinghu, Zhejiang Province.

In fact, it is very common for foreign giants to set up trading companies and offices in China, but there are only few of them investing to set up plants. There is no doubt that the two pork giants, Tönnies and Danish Crown, are both optimistic about the huge meat consumption market in China. It could be expected that more foreign enterprises will come to build their own meat supply chains in China and be more closed to the Chinese market.